Crazy electric cars: NIO, Xiaopeng, Ideal, who is more like Tesla?

Source | Financial Eye (ID: BJCJRY)

Author | Sharp Eyed Brother

Ma Yun has a saying that has been very popular in recent years.Today you ignore me, tomorrow I will make you unaffordableThis sentence could not be more appropriate for this year’s new energy vehicle stocks, especially NIO, Xiaopeng and Ideal, who are known as the "three heroes of new car-making forces".

On the evening of November 23, U.S. stocks of new energy vehicles, including NIO, Xiaopeng, and Ideal, rose sharply. NIO rose 12.45%, Xiaopeng rose 33.92%, and Ideal rose 14.48%.The market value of the "three heroes" soared by more than 170 billion overnightNIO is approaching the 500 billion mark, Xiaopeng breaks through 340 billion, and ideal breaks through 240 billion.

However, by the evening of November 24, the share price of "Sanjie" had corrected slightly, and the largest decline was NIO, which fell by 3.38%. A small correction naturally could not hide the sharp rise in the share price during the year. As of now,NIO’s largest increase this year was 26.1 times, Xiaopeng’s largest increase was 3.35 times in three months of listing, and the largest increase was 2.33 times in four months of ideal listing

Such an increase, at least 1.5 times the income in the circle of friends. However, looking back at the financial data of "Sanjie",The smell of foam is even stronger!

This article attempts to compare NIO and Xiaopeng, which have a large market capitalization among the "three heroes", from the dimensions of financial data, sales volume and capital behind them, and then compare them with Tesla’s valuation to illustrate the current valuation of the "three heroes".

Xiaopeng’s revenue and gross profit margin are less than one-third of NIO

Comparing NIO with Xiaopeng is actually not very meaningful in itself. Obviously, NIO is much more powerful than Xiaopeng and has a much larger scale. However, from an investment perspective, some financial data comparisons are still very meaningful.For example, Xiaopeng’s gross profit margin is less than one-third of NIO, and Xiaopeng actually burns more money than NIO. Conclusions can be drawn from the comparison of financial data

(Data source: Sharp Eyes, various companies’ financial reports)

The sharp-eyed brother spent a little time making such a table. The data mainly comes from the three quarterly reports of NIO, Xiaopeng, Ideal and Tesla this year. Some information can be seen from this table:

1.NIO’s revenue scale is more than 3 times that of XiaopengThe first three quarters of NIO revenue 9.617 billion, Xiaopeng revenue 2.993 billion, and the ideal revenue scale is more than Xiaopeng, the first three quarters of revenue reached 5.31 billion.

2.The one with the highest gross profit margin among the "three heroes" is ideal.The lowest is Xiaopeng 1.84%. For comparison, Xiaopeng’s gross profit margin is less than one-third of NIO, NIO gross profit margin is less than one-half of the ideal, and Xiaopeng’s gross profit margin is less than one-sixth of the ideal.

3. In terms of sales expense ratio, although NIO has the most sales expenses among the "three heroes", it reaches 2.725 billion.But relatively speaking, Xiaopeng’s advertising and marketing is the most powerful.The sales expense ratio is more than twice that of NIO and more than five times the ideal.

4. In terms of R & D expenditure, NIO has the most R & D expenses and the least ideal R & D expenses.But the one most willing to develop is XiaopengThe proportion of R & D expenditure in total revenue reached 42.30%, several times higher than that of the other two.

5. Sales expenses and R & D expenses can see the degree to which a company burns money. In absolute terms, NIO burns the most money.But relatively speaking, Xiaopeng still burns the most moneyLess than 3 billion income, sales and research and development burned more than 3.20 billion, their own revenue is not enough to burn, but also everywhere to find money.

6. Looking at the net interest rate, the "three heroes" are all losing money.NIO wins "loss king" with scale advantageHowever, the largest proportion of losses was still Xiaopeng.

From the above comparison, from a financial perspective alone, NIO is obviously better than Xiaopeng, because Xiaopeng’s self-hematopoietic ability is the worst in comparison!

Of course, although the "three heroes" are still losing money, and NIO is losing the most, its share price has risen the most. Wall Street likes to capture the small positive changes of listed companies,For example, some people say that the rise in NIO’s share price is related to the narrowing of its losses month-on-month, while the other two are still in the midst of widening losses month-on-month

(Data source: collated by Sharp Eye Brother)

From the perspective of a single quarter, NIO lost 1.692 billion in the first quarter of this year, 1.176 billion in the second quarter, and 1.047 billion in the third quarter. The first three quarters accumulated 3.915 billion, but the loss narrowed in the single quarter, which is good news in the eyes of Wall Street. Perhaps the narrowed loss indicates that NIO has hope to turn losses into profits in the future!

NIO advantage: expensive

One of the major advantages of NIO is that it sells very expensive, satisfies people’s vanity, and supports high-end positioning with high prices. Even if the price of domestic Tesla drops below 300,000,Li Bin still insists on not lowering the price, saying that "sticking to the high-end brand positioning is a very right thing for us to do."

From the data of the financial report, it also confirms that NIO is expensive, and it is even half as expensive as Tesla!

Since November, the "three heroes" and Tesla, a new force in domestic new energy vehicle manufacturing, have successively released their respective third-quarter reports, disclosing the sales volume of the first three quarters in the financial reports.In the first three quarters, Tesla’s cumulative sales were 318,400, NIO’s cumulative sales were 12,200, Xiaopeng’s cumulative sales were 8578, and ideal cumulative sales were 8660

According to this sales data and the company’s revenue data, Sharp Eye calculated their respective average sales prices, and NIO’s average price of 787,900 is much higher than that of other companies.

(Data source: collated by Sharp Eye Brother)

Of course, there is a certain deviation in calculating the average price by dividing the total revenue directly by the sales volume, but the overall deviation is not large.Because more than 90% of the revenue of "Sanjie" comes from vehicle salesOnly Tesla’s vehicle sales revenue was less than 90%, but it also exceeded 80%.

For comparison,The price of NIO is obvious. The average price is more than twice that of Xiaopeng, and it is almost twice that of Tesla.I really don’t understand why NIO owners choose NIO. Brother Sharp Eyes feels that NIO’s cars are not higher-end than Tesla, or is NIO’s technology better than Tesla, or is the quality better than Tesla?

Sharp eye brother also went to Autohome to check the quotations of various brands of models, NIO three models quoted between 35.8-62 4,000, subsidized price between 34.36-60 1,500; Xiaopeng two models quoted between 14.68-40 9,900, no subsidy; ideal ONE offer 328,000, no subsidy; Tesla domestic Model 3 quotation 26.97-41 9,800, subsidy 249,900, imported Model S and Model X quotation between 73.39-87 2,900, no subsidy quotation.

(NIO quote, source: Autohome)

In comparison, the reason why NIO is more "fragrant" than Xiaopeng and Ideal seems to be subsidies, but compared with Tesla, what about the high-end and high-end superiority that NIO owners buy at a high price in front of Tesla owners?

On November 13, short-selling agency Citron pointed out in its short-selling report on NIO that,The price of domestic Tesla Model Y will drop from 480,000 to below 300,000, which will have a greater impact on NIO

At present, the domestic Tesla Model Y has been declared at MIIT, and the first batch of vehicles is expected to be delivered in January next year.

NIO’s shareholder background, Xiaopeng can’t compare

It is said that,In 2019, Li Bin did one thing, and that was to look for money everywhereFrom the disclosed financial data, NIO in 2019 is indeed short of money. At the end of 2018, NIO had 8.289 billion cash in the account. By the end of 2019, there was only 974 million cash left in the account. For NIO who is crazy about burning money, money is really too important!

Coincidentally, as the cash in NIO’s account decreases month by month, NIO’s share price also falls step by step.By October last year, it almost entered the ranks of "penny stock"The stock price reached a minimum of $1.19, and the market value was only $1.387 billion, about 9.126 billion yuan.

The share price has fallen by 80% from the NIO issue price of $6.26. This should be the saddest time for Li Bin.

(Screenshot of NIO stock price trend, weekly line)

Fortunately, Li Bin found "top gifter dad".

On May 25 this year, NIO changed its shareholder information, and the controlling shareholder was formerly NIO NEXTEV LIMITED and NIO (Anhui) Holdings Co., Ltd., while NIO (Anhui) Holdings Co., Ltd. was established by seven shareholders, including Li Bin and Hefei Construction Investment Holdings Co., Ltd., SDIC China Merchants Investment Management Co., Ltd., and Anhui High-tech Industrial Investment Co., Ltd.

(Screenshot of Tianyancha)

Among the seven shareholders, only the second phase of the Advanced Manufacturing Industry Fund (limited partnership) includes Yantai Finance Development and Investment Group, Guangzhou Emerging Industries Fund, Zhejiang Provincial Industrial Fund, Foshan Financial Holding Company, Shanghai International Group, China Merchants Group Capital, Shenzhen Guidance Fund and other government industrial funds.

Therefore, many people say that NIO has become a state-owned companyAfter the change of shareholder information, NIO’s share price has continued to rise sharply, increasing by 16.49 times since May 25.

By the end of the third quarter, NIO had more than 22 billion cash on its books.

(Screenshot of NIO’s balance sheet)

In contrast, Xiaopeng’s shareholder capital "boss" camp is only non-state-owned capital such as Ali, IDG, and Morgan Stanley, which cannot be compared with the state-owned NIO.

Of course, at the same time as the introduction of government capital, NIO also signed the relevant "gambling agreement".The Hefei government requires NIO China to achieve 14.80 billion revenue in 2020, 120 billion revenue in 2024, list 6-8 models, and 420 billion total revenue from 2020 to 2025.

Looking at NIO’s revenue of less than 10 billion yuan in the first three quarters of this year, we can see that this requirement is not simple, nor can it be easily completed.

Even if 14.80 billion revenue can be completed this year, revenue will be 120 billion by 2024,It requires the compound annual growth rate of NIO revenue to exceed 60%.If NIO insists on not reducing the price, this request is estimated to be difficult to complete!

Compared to Tesla, the valuation of the "three heroes" is too high

Tesla is currently a leading and benchmarking company in the field of new energy vehicles in the world, and it is reasonable to use it as a standard to see the valuation of the "three heroes".

Or look at a table:

(Data source: collated by Sharp Eye Brother)

As of the evening of November 24, the US stock market closed, NIO market value 479.616 billion yuan, Xiaopeng market value 334.494 billion yuan, ideal market value 2419.20 billion yuan, Tesla market value 3.46 trillion yuan.

Since none of the "three heroes" have achieved profitability, even Tesla’s current profitability is not very stable, so the price-to-earnings ratio valuation method does not apply.Mainly look at the price-to-book ratio and price-to-sales ratio

As can be seen from this table, NIO’s price-to-book ratio is the highest, followed by Tesla, but NIO’s price-to-sales ratio is nearly double that of Tesla. While Xiaopeng only has a price-to-sales ratio of 16.96 times, it has a price-to-sales ratio of 111.76 times, the highest among the four companies.

Overall, the price-to-book ratio of China’s new car-making forces "Sanjie" is lower than that of Tesla, while the price-to-sales ratio is higher than that of Tesla, which shows that in comparison, "Sanjie" has heavier assets but generates lower revenue, and its sales capacity is not as good as Tesla. Or,It can also be said that the valuation of "Sanjie" is higher than that of Tesla!

This is actually the second reason in the short-selling report of short-selling agency Citron on NIO. The report pointed out that the relative valuation of NIO is currently twice that of Tesla. According to the price-to-sales ratio of NIO in the next 12 months, the trading price of NIO should be 17-18 times, and Tesla should be 9 times.

No matter from the perspective of revenue, sales and other scale advantages or profit margins, NIO’s valuation should not be higher than Tesla, but the fact is that NIO’s valuation is already nearly double that of Tesla. As can be seen from the changes in NIO’s share price mentioned above and the introduction of the Hefei government,This round of NIO’s share price rose sharply, mainly due to the market’s optimistic expectations for the entry of government capital

And Xiaopeng, ideal, and even the domestic class A share from the battery to the whole vehicle, and even to the parts of a big rise, sharp eye brother believes that more is in the policy to pick up with the rise, and the market for the entire plate hype,The level of hype can be seen from the fact that NIO’s recent daily turnover exceeds the sum of Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft. How crazy is it?